Trump's 40% favorable is about half of Obama's 78% pre-inauguration rating
/President-elect Donald Trump approaches Inauguration Day with a significantly lower favorable rating than his three immediate predecessors received when they were presidents-elect. Trump's 40% favorable rating is roughly half of what Barack Obama enjoyed before his inauguration in 2009 (78%) and is much lower than the pre-inaugural ratings for George W. Bush (62%) and Bill Clinton (66%).
Pre-Inauguration Favorable Ratings of Presidents-Elect Since 1993
|
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
Donald Trump (Jan 4-8, 2017) |
40 |
55 |
5 |
|
Barack Obama (Jan 9-11, 2009) |
78 |
18 |
5 |
|
George W. Bush (Jan 15-16, 2001) |
62 |
36 |
2 |
|
Bill Clinton (Jan 18-19, 1993) |
66 |
26 |
8 |
The latest findings were collected in a Jan. 4-8 Gallup poll.
Of the four most recent incoming presidents, Trump is the only president-elect whose unfavorable rating outweighs his favorable score; a majority of 55% of Americans hold a negative view of Trump, compared with 18% who did so for Obama, 26% for Clinton and 36% for Bush. Gallup has asked favorable and unfavorable ratings for key figures in this format since 1992, so only comparisons to Clinton, Bush and Obama are available.
Trump's latest favorable rating -- along with his post-election November and December ratings -- remains slightly higher than during the course of the presidential campaign, when it never rose above 38%, including 34% in the week before the election. The three previous presidents-elect also saw improvement in their images after winning the election. Obama's favorable image increased 16 percentage points, Clinton's rose 15 points and Bush's seven points between Gallup's final pre-election poll and its last pre-inauguration poll in prior transfers of power.
Trump Receives Lower Favorables From His Own Party Than Predecessors Did
While the large majority of Republicans (82%) hold a favorable opinion of President-elect Trump, that is lower than favorable ratings prior presidents have enjoyed among members of their own party at this point in their ascension to the White House.
Bush had nearly unanimous favorability from fellow Republicans in January 2001, with 97% of GOP respondents rating him favorably at that time. Obama (95%) and Clinton (92%) enjoyed favorable opinions from more than nine in 10 Democrats.
Pre-Inauguration Favorable Ratings of Presidents-Elect, by Political Party
|
|
Donald Trump |
Barack Obama |
George W. Bush |
Bill Clinton |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
National adults |
40 |
78 |
62 |
66 |
|
Republicans |
82 |
60 |
97 |
42 |
|
Independents |
33 |
75 |
60 |
61 |
|
Democrats |
8 |
95 |
31 |
92 |
Vice President-Elect Pence Also Struggles With Historically Low Favorability
Gallup's Jan. 4-8 poll also asked Americans for their opinions of the incoming vice president and first lady. Currently, 42% of Americans have a positive opinion and 37% a negative opinion of Vice President-elect Mike Pence, with 21% not yet holding an opinion.
The previous three incoming vice presidents had favorable ratings above the majority level, including 53% for Joe Biden, 61% for Dick Cheney and 63% for Al Gore. In contrast to these other vice presidents' ratings, Pence's unfavorable is nearly as high as his favorable rating. The percentage of Americans unfamiliar with Pence is also slightly higher than it was for his predecessors.
Pre-Inauguration Favorable Ratings of Vice Presidents-Elect Since 1993
|
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
Mike Pence (Jan 4-8, 2017) |
42 |
37 |
21 |
|
Joe Biden (Jan 9-11, 2009) |
53 |
29 |
18 |
|
Dick Cheney (Jan 15-16, 2001) |
61 |
23 |
16 |
|
Al Gore (Jan 18-19, 1993) |
63 |
22 |
15 |
Melania Trump's favorable rating of 37% is equal to the percentage of Americans who have an unfavorable view (37%) of her. However, about one in four Americans (26%) are unfamiliar with or have no opinion of her.
The soon-to-be first lady's favorable ratings are significantly lower than previous first ladies' ratings as their husbands prepared to take office. Michelle Obama (68%), Laura Bush (56%) and Hillary Clinton (59%) each had majority favorable ratings at this point before Inauguration Day.
Pre-Inauguration Favorable Ratings of First Ladies Since 1993
|
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
Melania Trump (Jan 4-8, 2017) |
37 |
37 |
26 |
|
Michelle Obama (Jan 9-11, 2009) |
68 |
18 |
13 |
|
Laura Bush (Jan 15-16, 2001) |
56 |
11 |
33 |
|
Hillary Clinton (Jan 18-19, 1993) |
59 |
26 |
15 |
Bottom Line
Trump will enter the White House in a strong political position, with his party controlling both chambers of Congress. But he enters office with a significantly more negative image than prior presidents-elect have had and with a less positive image even among those who identify with his own party. The president-elect's general unpopularity is an unprecedented hurdle, whose impact on his ability to govern remains to be seen. As he takes office, Trump also faces much greater political polarization than his successors, even though all recent presidents have faced fairly stiff opposition from nonsupporters once in office.
Trump's approval ratings for handling his presidential transition are slightly higher than his favorable ratings and may be a better measure of his performance to date. But those too are worse than other presidents received during their transitions, suggesting that Trump's initial job approval ratings after the inauguration may not reflect the "honeymoon" period that newly elected presidents traditionally enjoy.
Historical data are available in Gallup Analytics.
Survey Methods
Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Jan. 4-8, 2017, with a random sample of 1,032 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.
Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 70% cellphone respondents and 30% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods.
View survey methodology, complete question responses and trends.
President Obama Leaves White House With 58% Favorable Rating
Fifty-eight percent of Americans view President Barack Obama favorably as his second term nears its end. The latest figure, along with the 61% and 62% favorable ratings Obama received in the weeks after the 2016 election, is one of the president's highest marks since the "honeymoon" period during his first year in office.
For most of Obama's time in the limelight, majorities of Americans have viewed him favorably, averaging 53% over the course of his two presidential terms.
Obama's favorable rating reached its high point of 78% as he approached his first inauguration in January 2009, and he enjoyed ratings in the 55% to 69% range during his first year in office. The outgoing president's favorability hit a low point at 42% after the 2014 midterm elections in which the GOP made significant gains in congressional and state elections across the country.
The president will leave office with a much higher favorable rating than did his immediate predecessor, George W. Bush (40%). Bill Clinton's rating (57%) was similar to Obama's, while George H.W. Bush left office in January 1993 with a slightly higher 62% favorable rating. Gallup began measuring presidential favorability using the favorable/unfavorable question format in 1992.
Michelle Obama Entered, Exits White House With 68% Favorable
First lady Michelle Obama will leave the White House with the same 68% favorable rating she had when she first moved in.
Majorities of Americans have consistently expressed a favorable view of Michelle Obama; her ratings were below 50% only in a May 2008 poll when Americans were still largely unfamiliar with her as her husband ran for president. The outgoing first lady's highest rating was 72%, two months into her husband's first term in office.
Michelle Obama's final rating as first lady is not as high as the 76% rating Laura Bush enjoyed when she departed the White House in early 2009 but is higher than the 56% Hillary Clinton received in November 2000.
Biden Ends Term as Vice President With His Highest Favorability Yet
About six in 10 Americans (61%) have a positive view of outgoing Vice President Joe Biden -- his highest favorable rating to date. The latest rating was collected about a week before Obama awarded Biden with the Presidential Medal of Freedom with distinction, the nation's highest civilian honor.
Gallup began polling on Biden's favorability when he was a presidential candidate in 2007, when his rating was 20%. Americans at the time were largely unfamiliar with the then-senator, which is evident in the 55% who had no opinion of him in April 2007.
Biden's familiarity and his favorability ratings increased once Obama selected him as his running mate in August 2008, and his favorable score reached 59% after the 2008 election. Since Biden took office, however, Americans have been lukewarm to him, with 38% to 49% holding a favorable view of him over most of his vice presidency. Biden's favorables have generally eclipsed his unfavorable ratings, though they were about equal or slightly negative in several measures in 2012, 2014 and 2015. Like Obama's, Biden's favorability improved sharply after last November's election, to 57%; and it has improved again in the latest poll.
Biden's current rating is higher than those Dick Cheney (37%) and Al Gore (56%) received as their vice presidencies ended.
Bottom Line
Obama will end his presidency with his personal popularity on an upswing. About six in 10 now view him favorably, and his job approval rating is in the mid-50% range.
The same can be said for Biden, who leaves the White House more favorably viewed than at any point in his White House career. This could bode well for the outgoing vice president, who has not ruled out a presidential run in 2020. Not unusually for a first lady, Michelle Obama remains the best liked of the three, with nearly seven in 10 Americans having a positive image of her.
Historical data are available in Gallup Analytics.
Survey Methods
Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Jan. 4-8, 2017, with a random sample of 1,032 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.
Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 70% cellphone respondents and 30% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods.
View survey methodology, complete question responses and trends.
